Republicans Can Win in November on Their Support for the Budget Bill

by Newt Gingrich

Democrats have made the One Big Beautiful Bill Act a centerpiece of their 2026 campaign, relying on a series of systematic lies, distortions, and misinformation. Of course, the leftwing propaganda media is echoing the Democrats’ party line and minimizing accurate reporting about the law.

Every Republican incumbent and candidate should embrace debating the OBBB. It is one of the most pro-worker, pro-family, and pro-small business laws in American history.

Polling from America’s New Majority Project shows that when voters understand what Republicans supported – and Democrats unanimously opposed – support for GOP candidates increases significantly.

Target Voter Groups

We focus on two key voter groups:

  • The New Majority – Roughly 72 percent of voters who share center-right values but with whom Republicans currently underperform. If the GOP earns 70 percent of their support, it could build a governing majority comparable to FDR’s New Deal coalition.
  • Unconverted MAGA – About 11 percent of voters who approve of President Donald J. Trump’s policies but are undecided or plan to vote Democrat. Winning 70 percent of these voters (while maintaining the current levels of support from everyone else) would be enough to secure a GOP majority in 2026.

On the generic ballot, voters preferred Democrats over Republicans 46 percent to 43 percent. Among the New Majority, Republicans led 57 percent to 28 percent. Among Unconverted MAGA voters, Democrats led 41 percent with the rest undecided.

After learning about specific OBBB provisions, support for Republicans surged in all groups.

Most Persuasive Provisions in the OBBB

1. Stopping the Largest Tax Increase in U.S. History

The Trump tax cuts of 2017 were set to expire at the end of this year. This would have meant a massive tax increase on every single American. OBBB made the 2017 tax rates permanent, preventing this historic tax increase.

Framing matters. When voters were asked to choose between a Republican who voted to stop the largest tax increase in American history and a Democrat who voted to allow it, support for the Republican rose 17 points among all voters, 18 points among the New Majority, and earned 61 percent of Unconverted MAGA voters.

By contrast, alternative framings generated far less support.

  • “Largest tax cut in American history” – only a plus-5 point gain overall, plus-5 among New Majority voters, and 43 percent among Unconverted MAGA voters.
  • “Extending the Trump Tax Cuts of 2017” – just plus-2 points overall, no gain among New Majority voters, and 35 percent among Unconverted MAGA voters.

Voters experience this issue as a tax increase being stopped – not as a tax cut or an extension – and Republicans should describe it accordingly.

2. Targeted Tax Cuts for Workers, Families, Seniors, and Businesses
OBBB eliminated taxes on tips and overtime, expanded the child tax credit, cut taxes for seniors, and incentivized U.S. manufacturing. Learning this key fact about the candidates’ votes boosted GOP support by 17 points among all voters, 16 points among the New Majority, and earned 62 percent of Unconverted MAGA voters.

3. Lower Health Care Costs via Expanded HSAs
The bill increased eligibility for tax-free health savings accounts and expanded what they cover. After learning this, support for the Republican rose 17 points among all voters, 16 points among the New Majority, and reached 56 percent among Unconverted MAGA voters.

4. Job Training Access for Low-Income Americans Pell Grants can now be used for job-training programs at community colleges thanks to the OBBB. Learning this drove a 19-point gain for the Republican candidate among all voters, 12 points among the New Majority, and 52 percent support among Unconverted MAGA voters.

5. Medicaid Reforms and Increased Funding OBBB strengthened Medicaid by tightening eligibility verification standards; requiring states to contribute their fair share; focusing resources on poor mothers, children, and the disabled; and encouraging able-bodied recipients to work. Furthermore, despite Democratic attacks, Medicaid funding will still rise by $200 billion by 2036 under OBBB – a 31 percent increase.

When framed as a choice between a Republican who voted for these reforms and a Democrat who voted against them, the Republican gains 9 points among all voters, 10 points among New Majority voters, and earns 48 percent support among Unconverted MAGA voters.

Earlier polling by America’s New Majority Project also reveals that after seeing pre- and post-OBBB Medicaid spending projections, only 14 percent of voters describe the GOP budget as a “cut,” while 30 percent describe it as an increase, and 35 percent say it “slows the growth” of Medicaid spending.

When asked about lower spending levels due to work requirements, 53 percent consider them “savings” for safety-net programs, while just 25 percent call them “cuts.”

Winning in 2026

As Margaret Thatcher said: “First you win the argument, then you win the vote.” When Republicans share the facts and challenge Democrats, special interests, and the media, they can win both.

And as Democratic strategist Joe Neapolitan advised: “Never underestimate the intelligence of the American people nor overestimate the amount of information they have.” With the truth about the OBBB, voters will rally to the GOP position and reject Democratic misrepresentations.

The budget debate is a powerful opportunity for Republicans and a serious political risk for Democrats.

For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com. Also, subscribe to the Newt’s World podcast.

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